The Folly of Waiting for the Bottom

THE EQUITY MARKET RESPONDED TO THE SUDDEN ONSET OF

the COVID-19 crisis with total shock: the S&P 500 Index fell from a new all-time high into bear market territory (a close down 20%) in a record 16 days. In less than five weeks, it closed down 34% from its February 19 peak. Whereupon, even as virus infections and deaths continued to rise sharply, and economic data went from bad to dreadful, the market suddenly made back about half its loss. As I write, it’s just over 2,800.